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primers-themes
Reading the Plumbing: When to Buy the Copper Deficit
The cross-asset signals, positioning data and macro regimes that time a structural shortage, built entirely on free data.
Jul 29
•
Defy the Odds
9
2
Wiring the Megatrends: The Copper Constraint on AI and Electrification
Mapping the copper value chain: How AI and electrification demand, a melting supply base, and the China trajectory drive asymmetric portfolio…
Jul 15
•
Defy the Odds
28
4
19
Five Task Forces, One Agenda: Warsh's Blueprint for Reshaping the Fed by Proxy
Mapping the five task forces, the Fed they could build, and the current market positioning, plus one interesting chart I stumbled upon.
Jun 18
•
Defy the Odds
23
2
20
Mapping the Point of No Return for US Debt: Why It Arrives in the Early 2030s
I worked through thirty years of US budget math line by line. The forced decision comes sooner than the official forecast admits, and Washington already…
Jun 12
•
Defy the Odds
70
26
32
Mapping the Damage from the Iran War IV: How It All Fits Together
We are inches from the line we drew.
May 11
•
Defy the Odds
34
5
15
Mapping the Damage from the Iran War III: The Last Ships Have Arrived
A reflexive rally, a physical wall, and four trades to play the market's rational blindness.
Apr 16
•
Defy the Odds
70
3
26
Mapping the Damage from the Iran War II: How Bad It Gets
Estimating the true economic cost of closing the Strait.
Mar 30
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Defy the Odds
39
31
Mapping the Damage from the Iran War I: The Timeline of the Supply Chain Shock
Which commodities run out first, which industries stop, and how much time is left.
Mar 25
•
Defy the Odds
112
3
47
The Warsh Manifesto: How to Reboot the Financial System to Finance the Government Debt
A technical blueprint for the greatest debt refinancing operation in history.
Feb 5
•
Defy the Odds
95
27
39
The new Rug-Pull Inflation Regime: The End of Stability
A new inflation regime: born in the 70s, mutated in our new era.
Jan 27
•
Defy the Odds
34
7
13
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