Disclaimer
Disclosures, Terms, and Important Information
Last updated: [20/04/2026]
This page contains the full disclosures, terms of use, and legal information that apply to all content published on Defy the Odds (the “Publication”). By accessing or subscribing to the Publication, you agree to the terms set out below. If you do not agree, please do not use the Publication.
Each post published on the Publication includes a short disclaimer and a link back to this page. This page is the full version of that disclaimer.
1. Nature of the Content
The Publication consists of general commentary, analysis, and opinion on macroeconomics, financial markets, and investment themes. It is intended for a general audience of subscribers and is not tailored to any individual reader’s financial situation, objectives, experience, or risk tolerance.
Nothing on the Publication constitutes:
personalised investment advice within the meaning of Directive 2014/65/EU (MiFID II) or equivalent regulation in any jurisdiction;
investment advisory services within the meaning of the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The Publication is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation and relies on the publisher’s exclusion under Section 202(a)(11)(D) of that Act;
an offer, solicitation, or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe for, or underwrite any financial instrument, security, or other asset;
portfolio management, investment management, or any regulated financial service within the meaning of Hungarian Act CXXXVIII of 2007 (Bszt.), Act CXX of 2001 (Tpt.), or equivalent regulation;
a promise, guarantee, or warranty of any future market outcome or investment performance.
The author is not a licensed financial advisor, broker, investment manager, or regulated investment professional. The author does not hold, and does not purport to hold, any authorisation from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), or any other financial regulator to provide regulated investment services.
2. Investment Recommendations Under MAR
Some posts published on the Publication may, in whole or in part, constitute an investment recommendation within the meaning of Article 3(1)(35) of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 (”MAR”), as implemented in the European Union, the United Kingdom (UK MAR), and Hungary. This section applies to such content.
2.1 Producer
Investment recommendations contained in the Publication are produced by the author, an independent non-professional producer within the meaning of MAR and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958. The author is not an investment firm, credit institution, or a regulated financial professional. The author does not receive compensation from any issuer of a financial instrument discussed on the Publication.
2.2 Basis and Methodology
Views expressed in the Publication are based on publicly available information, including but not limited to:
macroeconomic data from official sources (central banks, statistical agencies, FRED);
market data from commercial and public providers;
publicly available commodity, shipping, and industry data;
the author’s own analytical framework, which combines growth and inflation dynamics, liquidity and duration factors, and risk-taking and positioning considerations.
All views are the author’s own opinion as of the date and time of publication, are directional rather than price-target based, and are subject to change without notice. The author may have held, currently hold, or subsequently hold views that differ from or contradict those expressed in any individual post. No representation is made that any analytical framework or methodology will produce any particular result.
2.3 Time Horizon and Updates
Where a time horizon is specified in a post, that horizon reflects the author’s view as of the date of publication and is not a commitment. The author does not undertake to update, review, or revise any recommendation once published, and the absence of a subsequent post should not be interpreted as confirmation or affirmation of any earlier view.
2.4 Risk Warning
Financial markets are volatile, speculative, and subject to sudden and substantial losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Projections, forecasts, and scenario analysis are inherently uncertain and may prove incorrect. Short positions, leverage, derivatives, and foreign exchange exposure can result in losses exceeding the initial capital committed. You may lose all of the capital you invest. Any decision to act on information contained in the Publication is taken at your sole risk.
3. Positions and Conflicts of Interest
The author’s policy is as follows:
The author may hold, acquire, or dispose of positions in any of the financial instruments, asset classes, or markets discussed in the Publication, at any time before, during, or after publication of a given post.
The author’s trading activity is generally consistent with the views expressed in the Publication, but may differ due to hedging, portfolio construction, liquidity considerations, tax considerations, personal circumstances, or changes in view.
For macro trade ideas (index futures, currencies, rates, commodities, and other broad-market instruments), the author may or may not hold positions at the time of publication and may initiate, modify, or close positions at any time thereafter.
For single-name equity ideas, if material, the author’s positioning as of the time of publication will be disclosed within the relevant post.
The author does not front-run readers. The author does not initiate positions with the specific intent of profiting from reader flows. The author’s trading is conducted on normal terms without preferential access, market-moving size, or coordination with any other party.
The author has no business relationship with, and receives no compensation from, any issuer of a financial instrument discussed in the Publication. The author is not compensated by any brokerage, exchange, or market venue. The author is not a member of an issuer’s board or a person discharging managerial responsibilities in any issuer.
Paid subscription revenue from the Publication is the author’s compensation for producing the Publication. Subscription pricing is not tied to any specific recommendation, issuer, or financial instrument.
4. No Fiduciary Relationship
Access to, and subscription to, the Publication does not create any advisory, fiduciary, agency, or other special relationship between the author and the reader. The author owes no duty of care, loyalty, or suitability to any individual reader. The author is not obligated to consider the specific circumstances of any reader when producing content.
No reader should rely on the Publication as the sole basis for any investment decision. Readers are strongly encouraged to conduct their own independent research, consult with a licensed financial advisor, tax professional, and legal counsel in their own jurisdiction, and make investment decisions based on their own judgment.
5. Jurisdiction-Specific Notices
5.1 European Union and European Economic Area
The Publication is available to readers in the EU and EEA. Content that meets the definition of an investment recommendation under MAR is subject to Section 2 above. The Publication is not a MiFID II investment service, does not offer portfolio management, and does not provide personal recommendations within the meaning of Article 9 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/565.
5.2 Hungary
The author is resident in Hungary. The Publication is a journalistic and analytical publication of general circulation. It does not constitute regulated investment service activity (befektetési szolgáltatási tevékenység) or ancillary service under the Hungarian Investment Firms Act (Bszt.) or the Capital Markets Act (Tpt.). The author does not provide investment advice (befektetési tanácsadás) within the meaning of Hungarian law to any individual reader. Readers in Hungary are advised to consult a licensed Hungarian financial advisor for personalised advice.
5.3 United Kingdom
The Publication is subject to UK MAR where it reaches UK readers. This document constitutes a non-independent marketing communication. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. The content has not been approved by an authorised person within the meaning of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and is not intended to constitute a financial promotion to retail clients in the UK.
5.4 United States
The Publication is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation within the meaning of the publisher’s exclusion from the definition of “investment adviser” under Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The Publication does not provide individualised advice, is disseminated uniformly to all subscribers, and addresses general market and economic conditions rather than specific client circumstances. Nothing in the Publication is a solicitation or offer of securities to U.S. persons in violation of U.S. federal or state securities laws. U.S. readers are advised to consult a licensed U.S. investment adviser or broker-dealer for personalised advice.
5.5 Other Jurisdictions
The Publication may be accessed from jurisdictions other than those specifically listed above. It is the reader’s responsibility to ensure that access to and use of the Publication complies with applicable local law. The Publication is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law.
6. Data and Third-Party Content
The Publication references data from third-party sources, including but not limited to FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), public central bank releases, and commercial data providers. Such data is used under the applicable terms of those sources. Where a chart or figure is sourced from a third party, the source is cited. The author makes no representation as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of third-party data.
7. Intellectual Property
All original content published on the Publication, including written analysis, frameworks, charts produced by the author, and visualisations, is the intellectual property of the author and is protected by applicable copyright law. Subscribers may view the content for personal use. Reproduction, redistribution, public display, or commercial use of the content, in whole or substantial part, without the author’s prior written permission is not permitted.
Brief quotation for the purpose of commentary, review, or news reporting, with proper attribution and a link to the Publication, is permitted under applicable fair use or fair dealing principles.
8. Limitation of Liability
To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, the author disclaims all liability for any loss, damage, cost, or expense, whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental, or punitive, arising out of or in connection with any reader’s use of, reliance on, or inability to access the Publication. This includes, without limitation, losses arising from investment decisions, trading activity, or any other action taken on the basis of content contained in the Publication.
The Publication is provided “as is” and “as available”, without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of accuracy, completeness, merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or non-infringement.
Nothing in this section is intended to exclude liability that cannot lawfully be excluded under applicable law, including liability for fraud or for death or personal injury caused by negligence.
9. Amendments
The author may amend this page at any time without prior notice. Continued access to or use of the Publication after any amendment constitutes acceptance of the revised terms. The “Last updated” date at the top of this page indicates when the most recent material change was made.
10. Governing Law and Disputes
These terms are governed by the laws of Hungary. Any dispute arising out of or in connection with the Publication or these terms shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the competent courts of Hungary, save where applicable mandatory consumer protection law grants a reader the right to bring proceedings in the courts of their place of residence.
End of disclosures.